What Are The *RAREST* Pokemon in Sword & Shield?


– Greetings, Pokefans! Michael here, and
a few months ago, I made a video talking about
what the rarest Pokemon in every main series
Pokemon game was. That video did not include
Pokemon Sword and Shield, because, obviously,
it wasn’t out yet. But now that the games
have been released, I figured, they
should be covered. However, determining the rarest
Pokemon in Sword and Shield is, well, it’s pretty
freaking complicated. In the older games, it was
pretty easy to figure out. You got Pokemon by
random grass encounters, and that was basically it, since the other encounter
and obtaining methods of breeding or static
encounters or gift Pokemon don’t really have a rarity
associated with them. So figuring out
the rarest Pokemon was as simple as figuring
out which Pokemon had the lowest
encounter percentage in the fewest number of places. But Sword and Shield make things a heck of a lot
more complicated. You’ve got random
grass encounters, you’ve got overworld encounters, you’ve got overworld
strong spawns, you’ve got Max Raid battles. The encounter tables
change every day depending on the weather. It’s a mess! However, despite the complexity, I think I’ve succeeded in
coming up with a numerical way to figure out what
the rarest Pokemon in Sword and Shield are. It’s not gonna be perfect, and it’s gonna get
a little bit mathy, and I’ve probably made some
mistakes at some point, but I tried my
best to figure out what the rarest Sword
and Shield Pokemon are, in the most numerical and
objective way possible. Before I get started, there are
going to be some exclusions, just like there was
in the first video. One of those is Pokemon
that have no chance associated with obtaining them. So, static encounter legendaries or gift starters or fossils. You do a certain thing, and
then you get the Pokemon. There’s no randomness involved, other than trying to hunt for the specific type
of fossil that you want, but we don’t have the
percentages for those, and you’re hunting for
the item, not the Pokemon. I will also be
excluding shiny Pokemon, because obviously the
shiny version of a Pokemon is more rare than
the normal version, so it would be redundant to
just say the shiny version of this particular species. I’m just focusing on the plain old regular
species in this video. Speaking of species, individual members of
an evolutionary line are different species, so they will be counted
totally separately. Also, I’m gonna be
figuring this out as if no exploits were possible. So in other words, I’m
gonna pretend as if changing your Switch
clock to impact the weather in the
game is not impossible. It’d get way too messy
to factor that in. All right, I think that
covers all of the exclusions, so before we get started, be sure sure to
subscribe to my channel. You know, in case you haven’t, I’m almost at a million subs, so it’d be cool
to hit that soon. But now we can start
with what exactly are the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield, and I say “what are”
rather than “what is” because it’s not really
easy to determine the definitive single
Pokemon that’s the rarest, because of the layer
of complexity added due to Max Raid battles. Now, we do have data for
the exact encounter rates for Max Raid battles. If you use a wishing
piece on a particular den, we can know the exact chance of a certain Pokemon
showing up, to a degree. Assuming we know whether
the den has spawned a common red beam or
a rare purple beam, and we also know the star level
of the raid that shows up, we know the exact odds of a
certain species showing up. But that’s it. We don’t know the chance of the beam being
red versus purple, and we also don’t the
individual chances for what star level
of raid will show up, which is also impacted by how
far into the game you are. So there’s a lot we don’t know. Additionally, we don’t know
the odds of any particular den spawning a raid on its own
without a wishing piece, and there’s the added layer
of complexity of being able to get Pokemon from raids from other people’s games that you normally
wouldn’t be able to. I have caught Shield
exclusives in my Sword version because I joined someone’s
raid who was playing Shield. Max Raids clearly make rarity
calculations too complicated so I’m gonna keep ’em separate. I’m gonna figure out the
rarest Max Raid boss Pokemon assuming you stand a den and
throw a wishing piece in. That’s it, they’re
their own thing, it would be too
messy to combine them with all the other stuff. Without a doubt, the rarest
Max Raid boss Pokemon are some of the
Gigantamax Pokemon. And I say “some” for a reason that I’ll explain
in a little bit. But before I dive in, there’s another exclusion
that I have to go over that I didn’t mention earlier,
those being event dens. If you didn’t know, there is
currently an ongoing event in the wild area that is dramatically boosting the
spawn rate for certain Pokemon, including several
Gigantamax Pokemon. Those are Gigantamax
Butterfree in both games, Gigantamax Drednaw and
Sandaconda in Sword, and Gigantamax Corviknight
and Centiskorch in Shield. These spawns are boosted
by the use of an event den that has its own
encounter table, and this event den can
spawn at any location in the entire wild area. This makes these event den
Pokemon so much easier to find than they would be otherwise. However, when the event
is over in January 2020, these Gigantamax forms
are going to become super freaking rare, like so many of the
other Gigantamax forms. But, in exchange, some
other Gigantamax Pokemon will probably take their place, and become far easier to find. Because of the temporary
nature of the events, I didn’t think it made
sense to include event dens in my discussion of what the rarest Max Raid
boss Pokemon is, because something
that’s rare right now may not be in a couple months. And something that is
not rare right now, will be substantially
rarer in a couple months. The events make things
too complicated, so we’re gonna act as if
the events don’t exist. So the rarest Max
Raid boss Pokemon are, as I said some of
the Gigantamax forms. And more specifically, it’s
the ones that are only found in one den, and only
in five star raids, and only have a 5%
chance of showing up. And that 5% is if the
raid is determined to be a five star raid, of all the possible
five star Pokemon, there’s only a 5% chance of
it being the Gigantamax form. As I mentioned earlier, we don’t have the exact data
for what the chances are for a rare purple
beam to show up, since all Gigantamax
forms outside of events only show up in purple beams, and we don’t have
the percentage chance for what the different
star levels will be any time a particular
raid is generated. But we do know that they’re
extremely freaking rare! And you basically only see
the rare Gigantamax forms if someone’s doing the exploit. The Gigantamax
Pokemon that are found under this extremely
rare criteria differ depending on what
version you’re playing. In Sword, they are
Charizard, Machamp, Garbodor, Corviknight, Drednaw, Coalossal,
Centiskorch, Hatterene, Copperajah, and Duraludon. In Shield, the list is the same, except replace Machamp
and Coalossal with
Gengar and Lapras. The other Gigantamax forms
that are currently available are certainly very rare, but they can be found
in more than one den or at more than one star level. So that covers the rarest
Max Raid boss Pokemon, but now that I
have covered that, from here on out, I’m
not taking into account Max Raid battles at all. As I said, they’re
super complicated, so adding that when
figuring out the rarity of all the other Pokemon, it’s just gonna be too much. So Max Raid battles,
we’re done discussing. However, there’s another
method of obtaining Pokemon that’s not as complicated
as Max Raid battles, but still kinda weird. But before we dive into that, I want to let guys you know that I am doing a Black
Friday/Cyber Monday sale on my merch store! Several old limited designs
are back and available, also you can get 10%
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GRAPPLOCT at checkout. My Patrons actually get an
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check your Patreon feed. This sale will only last
until the end of the day on Tuesday, December 3rd, so if you want one of
these limited designs, and you want to save
some money on some merch, go get it right now,
link’s in the description. Anyways back to what
I was discussing. The other kinda weird
method are strong spawns. You may have noticed
in the wild area that there are several
Pokemon wandering around separate from the
other wild Pokemon. They’re not in the grass, and they don’t despawn
unless you encounter them or wait until the next day. These are widely known
as strong spawn Pokemon, and they have much higher levels than the other wild
Pokemon you find. We have the data on which
strong spawn Pokemon can show up in which
parts of the wild area, and under which
types of weather. However, we don’t have the
data on the percentage chance of each certain spawn point generating a certain
species of Pokemon. We know Milotic’s a heck of
a lot rarer than Gyarados, but we don’t know
how much rarer. Therefore, I had to come
up with another method of determining what the rarest
strong spawn Pokemon were. First, I looked at a list of
all the strong spawn Pokemon and eliminated all of the
ones that do not show up anywhere else in the wild area as a strong spawn specifically. Then, I looked to see if
that particular species can show up anywhere
else in the Galar region via any other method
other than Max Raids. If they can be
found anywhere else, they are again, eliminated. Then of the remaining Pokemon, I looked to see how
many different weathers they can show up under. As a result of all
this elimination, the rarest strong spawn Pokemon are those that only show up
in one area of the wild area, show up nowhere
else in the game, and only show up during
one weather pattern. Those Pokemon are Clefable,
Bellossom, Kirlia, Vespiquen, Mime Jr., Lucario, Weavile, Chandelure, Aegislash, and all the Eeveelutions
except Glaceon, since Glaceon can show up
in both snow and snowstorm. If you are exploring
the wild area and see one of these
Pokemon running around, you should catch it, because it’s not gonna
be there tomorrow. So now I’ve figured out the
rarest Max Raid boss Pokemon, and the rarest
strong spawn Pokemon, totally separate from the
other encounter methods, ’cause they kinda
needed to be separate. So now all that’s
left is determining the rarest Pokemon in the more
traditional encounter sense, of both overworld and random
grass encounters, and fishing. But these I can
combine together, it’s just kinda complicated. There are two main factors
that cause this complication. The first is the difference
between overworld encounters and random grass
encounters/fishing. Overworld encounters, you can
see multiple Pokemon at once, so the effective encounter rate is substantially higher, because you don’t
have to enter a battle and wait for it start to
see what the Pokemon is. Whereas for random
grass and fishing, you have to find an
exclamation point, and run into and
then see what it is. If it’s not what you
want, run, try again. It’s much slower, so the
encounter rates mean more. And the second
factor is weather. Weather in the wild area
dramatically impacts the spawns that will
show up in any given area on any given day. And it makes Pokemon more rare than they would be otherwise. For example, a Pokemon may
have a worst encounter rate on a route, but you
can find it any time. If a Pokemon has a
better encounter rate in the wild area, but it only shows up on one of
the nine different weathers, and weather only
changes once per day, if you don’t change
your Switch clock, it could take you
a really long time to find that Pokemon. I have taken all these
factors into account and created a metic that I
am calling the rarity score. Which I hope will accurately give a good numerical indication of how truly rare a Pokemon is by considering the
difference between overworld and random encounters, and also the impacts
of the weather. To figure out a
Pokemon’s rarity score, you first look at
its encounter rate, for example, 2%,
5%, 50%, whatever. If that encounter rate is done via the random grass
encounters or fishing, it stays the same. However, if that rate is
for an overworld encounter, the effective rate gets doubled, because as I said, if you can
see multiple Pokemon at once, you’re gonna find
what you need faster. The two times multiplier
is admittedly subjective, but I figure just a
simple multiplier of two is what made the most sense. Then you take into account how many different
places it is found. For example, if it’s found
on one route at any time, that’s a location number of one. However, if it’s only found under a specific
type of weather, that changes once per day, that’s an effective
location number of 1/9, since there are nine
different weathers. Since weather seems to
be determined randomly, you have a one
out of nine chance to get a particular weather
on a particular day. So therefore, if it’s only
found under one weather, you’re only gonna find
that Pokemon on average, one out of every nine days. So that definitely has
to be taken into account and make the Pokemon
rarer than it would be if it could be found
on a route at any time. So you take the Pokemon’s
effective encounter rate and multiply it by the
effective number of locations. If the rates are different
in different locations, then you multiply that rate
by that location number and then add them all together. The math works out the same. I know I got a little
heavy on the math there, so I’ll go into an example that will hopefully
clarify this for you. So I’ll discuss Stonjourner, a Pokemon widely considered
to be extremely rare in Pokemon Sword. Stonjourner is found on Route 10 with a 2% random grass
encounter at any time. It is also found at
the Lake of Outrage, but only under intense sun
at a random grass rate of 2%, and under sandstorm at a
random grass rate of 5%. So that works out
to two times one, plus two times 1/9,
plus five times 1/9, resulting in a rarity
score of 2.777. So now that you
hopefully understand how a rarity score works, let’s go through several Pokemon that are considered widely to be some of the
rarest in these games, and figure out exactly
how rare they are. Eiscue, the shield
counterpart for Stonjourner, unsurprisingly has an
identical rarity score. It is also found only via
random grass encounters with a 2% rate on Route 10, a 2% rate in snow at
the Lake of Outrage, and a 5% rate in a snowstorm
at the Lake of Outrage. The formula ends up
exactly the same, so it also has a
rarity score of 2.777. Feebas is a pretty rare Pokemon, only being found by
fishing on Route two with a 1% encounter rate. Fishing is not overworld,
so the 1% is unchanged, but it can be found during
any weather on any day, so it’s a full location number. Therefore 1% times one location means its rarity score is one. Sizzlipede is in a near
identical situation. Ignoring the guaranteed
encounter in the Motostoke gym, it’s only a 1% encounter
rate on Route 3, randomly in the grass. This also makes a
rarity score of one. Another Pokemon that’s
pretty rare is Rotom. It is only found at
the Lake of Outrage when it is either raining
or thunderstorming. However it’s an
overworld encounter, so based on my formula,
its 2% encounter rate gets doubled to an effective
encounter rate of 4%. Four times 2/9 gives a
rarity score of 0.888. Dreepy, the base form
pseudo-legendary for
generation eight, is also quite rare, actually
being substantially rarer than its evolution Drakloak. It is only found via
random grass encounters, again at the Lake of Outrage, under three different weathers. In rain and thunderstorms, it’s found at a 2% rate, and when it’s overcast,
it’s found a 1% rate. This creates a formula
of two times 2/9, plus one times 1/9, giving
a rarity score of 0.555. Hitmontop is pretty rare too, actually being the rarest
of the Hitmon line. It’s an overworld encounter
in the Lake of Outrage, so its 2% rate
gets bumped to 4%. However it’s only
during Overcast weather, meaning its rarity
score is only 0.444. Togekiss is in a
similar situation. It’s only in the Dusty
Bowl in foggy weather with a 2% overworld
encounter rate. It’s a pre-set flying encounter which is Braviary or
Mandibuzz 98% of the time, but since you can still
see it in the overworld, it gets the rate bumped to 4%, meaning another
0.444 rarity score. Mimikyu is also quite rare. Excluding its potential
as a strong spawn, which is what I’ve been
doing this whole time, it can only be found
in Giants Mirror under foggy weather. It’s a random grass encounter
with only a 3% encounter rate. Three times 1/9 gives a
rarity score of 0.333. But none of these are
the rarest Pokemon. There are actually eight Pokemon with even lower rarity scores. In Sword, the first is Flygon. It can spawn as a strong
spawn in the Dusty Bowl, but in the Lake of Outrage, it
only has a 1% encounter rate and only during
Intense Sunlight. It is an overworld
encounter though, so the effective rate
gets bumped to 2%. That multiplied by 1/9th
gives a rarity score of 0.222. In Shield, Haxorus is in the
same situation as Flygon. It can be found in other
places as a strong spawn, but in the Lake of Outrage, it only shows up
during thunderstorms with a 1% overworld
encounter rate, giving it another
0.222 rarity score. It should be noted
that Flygon and Haxorus are not version exclusives, they just have substantially
different rarities, depending on the games. So they’re pseudo-version
exclusives. However, there are
six other Pokemon that also have rarity
scores of 0.222, that I consider to be the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield, not Flygon or Haxorus. The reason for that is
that these other Pokemon can’t be found anywhere else, whereas Haxorus and Flygon
can be found as strong spawns. I know I said I was
excluding strong spawns, which I have been
doing this whole time, except when you have a tie, and some of them can be
found elsewhere some way, excluding Max Raid
battles, and some cannot, that’s the only way. The one where it’s the only way, those ones are rarer. The true rarest Pokemon
are Deino, Hakamo-o, and Turtonator in Sword, and in Shield, they are
Goomy, Sliggoo, and Drampa. All six of these Pokemon
can only be found at the Lake of Outrage doing
random grass encounters with a measly 2% encounter rate under one weather each, giving them all rarity
scores of 0.222. Deino and Goomy are only
found when it’s raining. Turtonator is only found
in the intense sunlight, and Hakamo-o,
Sliggoo, and Drampa are only found in thunderstorms. All of these Pokemon
can only be found at the Lake of Outrage, only doing random
grass encounters, with only a 2% rate, and
only under one weather, and they are nowhere
else in the game other than Max Raid battles. These are definitively the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield, at least in regards to the
typical encounter method. So the moral of this story is if you have a
dragon type Pokemon, it’s probably rare
and you should breed
it for your friends. Thank you so much for watching and an extra special
thanks to my Patrons for supporting me
over on Patreon giving me some income
that’s independent of the fickle
YouTube ad revenue. If you want to help
support the channel make my income more
stable, (laughs) link’s in the description. Also, don’t forget to
check out the merch sale before that goes away, and if you wanna check out
my Pokemon Sword Let’s Play that’s been ongoing, you
can click right here. All right, that’s
all I have for now! So ’til next time Pokefans, gotta catch them all!

100 comments

  1. Just completed my dex today, but goomy was a nightmare for me. Got lucky with Drampa and found it pretty quick, but Goomy took me about 4 hours of grinding… also not helpful that Noivern spawns in the overworld of Lake of Outrage grass patches, and they move faster than you can bike… which means youre constantly fighting off Noivern while trying to encounter shaking grass patches.

    It’s a bit easier for Turtonator in Sword, since the equivalent spawns for the correct time of day seem to be Ninetails, which is much less aggressive (tho shout out to the durants, which are also a nightmare here since their models are shorter than the grass itself, making it tough to tell if the exclamation point is a shaking grass patch or a Durant who just noticed you…)

  2. I spent 3 hours fishing for a normal Feebas on route 2 when I decided to breed for a competitive shiny. Yeah, handed out my breedjects to my friends & told them where they could find the prism scale because I planned to use mine for my shiny & that’s exactly what I did. Stupid 1% encounter rate made getting a normal Feebas longer than it took to breed it for a shiny & yeah, mine was nearly perfect, because he came so early, he was missing 2 IVs but I hyper trained those.

    Actually figured Goomy was rare so when I looked for people for doing a Goodra raid battle, was surprised when nobody jumped in. I messaged my friends who are all in different time zones, for me it was 12:30am pacific, I think almost all of them were in bed. I ended up doing a quick surprise trade then jumped back into the raid & 2 people immediately joined me, makes me wonder what’s up with the screwed raid system but yeah, people wanted Goodra.

  3. SPOILERS

    I don't think gigantimax charizard should be on the rare list, because if you beat the league, Leon gives you a gigantimax capable charmander

  4. We do know the red:purple ratio, 10% to get purple. Also, this video made me even more proud that i got giga alcremie before we got all the exploits, which you missed btw, you can onoy get giga alcremie with 5 stars in one den

  5. Btw you can encount sizlipede with an ability for 50%. thatability is flash fire! Im hunting it in shiny and i am making good use of that ability!

  6. Turtonator is rare but since it is a fire type. you can lead a Pokemon with Flash Fire and make him more likely to show up, making him potentially less rare

  7. actually there is a certain porcentage involved with the fossils:
    fossilized bird: very rare (shield) uncommon (sword)
    fossilized dino: uncommon (shield) common (sword)
    fossilized fish: common (shield) uncommon (sword)
    fossilized draco: uncommon (shield) very rare (sword)

    with this in mind we can determine the most common fossil pokemon is Arctovish in both versions and the rarest in both versions is Dracozolt.

  8. Unsubscribed

    Dusty Channel bully yes someone cares about me Micheal disgusting human being tell Jubilee to just face it than hiding like she’s in WW2.

  9. DUDE is soooooooo long winded. Save yourself the trouble just go to time stamp 12:06 he finally gets to what you came here to find out.

  10. If you put a Pokemon with flash fire in the first slot of your party, your chance of catching Sizzlipede is much higher.

  11. They really are ruining pokemon
    It's not fun to play anymore
    My opinion only so have fun playing

  12. Just to break the tie I would have discarded Sliggoo and goomy, because if you get either you can breed/evolve to get the other, so it's kinda 2 for 1, the same applies to deino and Hakamo-o.

    leaving turtonator and drampa as the rarest imo, again, just to break the tie.

  13. Isn’t g max charizard a gift Pokémon when u beat the game and go to Leon’s room and u get a charmander that has the ability to g max when u evolve it

  14. Hey man ive started an online gym challenge group on Facebook for sword and shield was wondering if I could advertise would also be huge to have you as a challenger at some point please let me know what you think not looking to make any profit from it just trying to get more challengers

  15. Ok. So I killed a lot of these accidentally but I got lucky on some. I got 2 goomys killed one caught one. Killed a drampa. Caught a lot of haxorus. Caught a lot of rotom. Theres more but most of them I accidentally killed

  16. YO i found rotom and sizzlipede
    Edit : I have been going to THE LAKE OF OUTRAGE AND ALL I SEE IS POKEMONS THAT I GOT AND EEVEE EVOLUTIONS

  17. At this point the rarest is the ones that only the friends you don’t have can get cause you only bought sword….

  18. "So the moral of the story, if you have a dragon type pokemon, it's probably rare and you should breed it for your friends." xD

    That killed me

  19. Although I agree with you for most. There are a few other factors you should include. Flash fire makes sizzlepeid easier to find with all other fire types and that extends to Harvest storm drain static magnet pull and lighting rod. Not that any of those matter in the end but feel like you should include them in the whole leading up to the end portion

  20. Dreepy isn't really too rare anymore, all you need to do is just do Surprise Trade for a bit. A ton of shiny hunters have tons of newly hatched Dreepy (Masuda Method is easier than repeated encounters). I know, because I'm one of the Dreepy depositors.

  21. I'm not even past Nessa's gym in Shield and I have 2 Dreepy, all Sword exclusives, every starter, Centiskorch and 2 dittos.

    Hmu and leave your Nintendo ID if you have any missing Dex entries you want.

  22. I have received most of the rare pokemon that you mention in surprise trades. Especially Deino, Hakamo-o, Stonjour and most of the time i receive dreepy

  23. +Mandjtv get in contact with me if you want a 6iv ditto for all your hard work.

    No, I will not give 6iv dittos to anyone else. I have a small supply.

  24. Feebas. 01% spawn rate and only one area you can catch it 😭 bite the hook already Feebas, bite the hook! I can’t take another Magikarp or Chewtle

  25. If you’re like me and hate sitting through talk that can easily be summed up when talking about the Pokémon itself jump to 14:40. I like this guy but freaking hell it took far too long to get to the point. 8 minutes talking about Max Raid battles only to end with “I’m not including them.”

  26. Rarest Pokemon to me: found in rarest weather 1 spot 1 grass not overworld encounter only SPAWNS once a month at level 70 very strong

  27. What about sinistea Rare Form with 1% at Glimwood Tangle and find out if it is the rare form you have to use Chipped Pot or Dynamax it for find if it have a stamp on it.

  28. The only objection I raise is that not all routes are the same. A route with only 4 chances to spawn pokemon will be very different from a route that can spawn 20. But that would really be getting into the weeds. I think a more effective method would be to calculate the average number of spawns for each route and use that as a multiplier instead of just arbitrarily choosing 2. I think that would probably change some of the rankings up quite a bit. For example, all the lake of outrage rarity scores would increase quite a bit since there are significant chances for them to spawn during their day. Plus theres the difference in ease of resetting overworld spawns by going in and out of leash range.

  29. The dreepy line was never an issue for me because I found a random drakloak trying to find some other pokemon for my dex (completely forget which one)

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